甘源食品：品类有红利，渠道加速开拓-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 376 million yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.2% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a phase of adjustment, which has temporarily impacted short-term performance, but investments in long-term growth are being made [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s revenue growth for 2024 was driven by strong performance in the flavored nut category, with significant growth in products such as green peas, sunflower seeds, and mixed nuts [3]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that green peas, sunflower seeds, and mixed nuts generated 520 million, 300 million, and 710 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 10%, and 21% [3]. Market and Channel Performance - The report notes that the company is expanding its presence in the snack retail and overseas markets, with expectations for continued growth in these areas in 2025 [3]. - Traditional supermarket channels faced challenges in Q1 2025, but the bulk snack channel continued to show high growth, and overseas channels are being actively developed [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 4.20 yuan, 4.84 yuan, and 5.51 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. - Revenue projections for the company are set at 2.599 billion yuan for 2025, 2.951 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.293 billion yuan for 2027, with growth rates of 15.1%, 13.5%, and 11.6% respectively [4].