YILI(SH:600887) CMS·2025-04-30 15:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company aims to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan and a total profit of 12.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% respectively, with an expected profit growth of 16% after excluding one-time asset impairment losses [6][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.71% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 24.19% [6][7] - The dairy product industry is expected to improve due to accelerated supply-side adjustments and enhanced demand-side policies, indicating a positive trend in supply and demand [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 8.24% to 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% [5][7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a decrease in raw milk costs [5][6] - The company’s cash dividend for 2024 was 7.726 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, significantly higher than previous years [5][6] Segment Performance - In 2024, liquid milk revenue decreased by 12.32% to 75 billion yuan, while infant formula and dairy products saw a revenue increase of 7.53% to 29.675 billion yuan [5][6] - The cold drink segment reported a revenue increase of 11.7% to 10.69 billion yuan, despite a decline in sales volume [5][6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts an EPS of 1.79 yuan for 2025, with a target valuation of 20 times earnings, leading to a market capitalization estimate of 227.8 billion yuan [6][7] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned for potential growth following the cleanup of its balance sheet from one-time asset impairments [6][7]