YINGJIA DISTILLERY(SH:603198) Guoxin Securities·2025-05-01 01:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][20][5] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The company is focusing on the growth of its cave series products, which are expected to continue to show double-digit growth throughout the year, despite a general decline in demand for other products [2][4] - The company is actively managing its channel structure to ensure healthy inventory levels and is expected to maintain a strong market presence in the domestic market [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 73.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [1] - For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 74.00 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.8%, and the net profit is projected to be 26.24 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 1.3% [5][6] Product Performance - The revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary white liquor in 2024 is expected to be 5.713 billion yuan and 1.290 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.8% and -6.6% [2] - The cave series products are anticipated to maintain strong growth, particularly the Dong 9 and Dong 6 variants, which are expected to outperform other product lines [2][4] Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets in 2024 is projected to be 5.093 billion yuan and 1.909 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3%, respectively [2] - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue from ordinary liquor, with a year-on-year decrease of 28.6% in Q4 2024 [2][3] Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve to 35.3% in 2024, an increase of 1.55 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 3.28 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [6][21]