xilinmen(SH:603008) Xinda Securities·2025-05-01 02:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for growth and profitability recovery in 2025 [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company, as a leader in the mattress industry, is currently facing short-term performance pressure due to insufficient demand and intensified industry competition. However, it possesses leading technology and a comprehensive product matrix, with strong online retail performance. The company is expected to return to growth and release profits in 2025, driven by national subsidy policies [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 322 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8% [1]. - The company has successfully upgraded its core technology modules based on its self-created "three-stage sleep aid theory," maintaining a leading position in the offline market and achieving record sales in its online product series [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from various product categories was as follows: mattresses (5.27 billion yuan, +5.1%), soft beds (2.44 billion yuan, -8.4%), sofas (720 million yuan, -6.6%), and wooden furniture (170 million yuan, +27.5%) [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue from mattresses was 1.13 billion yuan (+10.0%), while soft beds, sofas, and wooden furniture saw declines of -18.0%, -26.0%, and +59.0%, respectively [2]. Business Segments - The company's self-owned brand retail segment generated 5.33 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.7%, with online sales growing by 9.9% to 1.98 billion yuan, while offline sales fell by 11.6% to 3.35 billion yuan [3]. - The self-owned brand engineering segment saw a revenue increase of 31.0% in 2024, reaching 560 million yuan, with Q1 2025 revenue at 120 million yuan (+11.5%) [3]. - OEM revenue in 2024 was 2.55 billion yuan (+9.2%), while cross-border e-commerce revenue was 290 million yuan (-11.6%) [3]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 33.67%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased competition and changes in product structure [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 3.69%, down 1.25 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased sales expense ratios [4]. - The company maintained a healthy cash flow, with operating cash flow of 787 million yuan in 2024, and a dividend payout of 273 million yuan, resulting in a payout ratio of 84.73% [6]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 420 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 490 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.3X, 13.2X, and 12.3X [6].