SA(SH:601021) Xinda Securities·2025-05-01 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in ticket pricing and is expected to optimize costs, which will aid in profit improvement [2][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.273 billion yuan, up 0.7% year-on-year [3][8] - The company is positioned as a leading low-cost airline in China, with strong growth potential and improving operational performance [9] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 20 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 11.5% and 0.7% respectively [3][8] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, but the net profit decreased by 16.4% to 677 million yuan [2][3] Capacity and Utilization - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for 2024 increased by 16.1%, with domestic and international routes showing growth of 7.7% and 70.9% respectively [4] - The overall passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 18.8% in 2024, with domestic and international routes growing by 9.8% and 82.3% respectively [4] - The fleet size reached 129 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 8 aircraft, and the fleet utilization improved to 9.3 hours, up 0.8 hours year-on-year [5] Cost Management - The average ticket price in the industry fell by 12.1% in 2024, while the company's unit revenue per RPK decreased by only 6.5%, indicating better price resilience compared to the industry [6] - The average fuel price decreased by 7% in 2024, contributing to a reduction in unit costs for the company [6] - The company expects further cost reductions, with both unit fuel and non-fuel costs declining, which will help offset the impact of falling ticket prices [7] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.712 billion yuan, 3.027 billion yuan, and 3.330 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.3%, 11.6%, and 10.0% [9]