Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue has been pressured by weak domestic demand, leading to a decline in profits, while overseas business has achieved a breakthrough with revenue reaching 0.15 billion yuan in 2024 [2][4] - The company reported revenues of 401 million yuan and 85 million yuan for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 8.55% and 18.61% [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to reduced sales volumes of high-priced stainless steel and oil steam generator products, alongside intensified price competition in the domestic market [2][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Total revenue for 2023 was 438.45 million yuan, projected to decline to 400.95 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 453.94 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 47.07 million yuan in 2023 to 39.16 million yuan in 2024, with a subsequent recovery to 45.11 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 1.30 percentage points to 22.70% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 9.74% [2] Product Performance - The heat exchanger segment, which accounts for approximately 60% of revenue, saw a revenue decline of 14.74% to 238 million yuan in 2024, while the tube bundle business experienced a revenue increase of 14.72% to 88 million yuan [3] - The air cooler segment's revenue decreased by 7.71% to 73 million yuan in 2024 [3] Market Trends and Growth Potential - The company is benefiting from the "reduce oil and increase chemical" trend in the domestic market, with a focus on energy-saving renovations driven by carbon reduction policies [4] - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, achieving a gross margin of 48.26% in overseas operations, significantly higher than the domestic market [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now expecting net profits of 45 million yuan and 53 million yuan, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 63 million yuan [4]
无锡鼎邦：2024年报&2025年一季报点评：内需疲软致利润承压下滑，海外业务收入实现零突破-20250501