Semir(SZ:002563) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-01 14:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of 3.08 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.1% to 210 million yuan, primarily due to increased sales and marketing expenses [5][6] - Despite short-term profit pressure, the company is expected to recover performance through store quality improvements and channel optimization, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6] - The company’s gross margin slightly increased to 47.0%, while the net profit margin decreased to 7.0% due to higher sales expenses [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.41 billion yuan, 16.21 billion yuan, and 17.04 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 5.1% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.21 billion yuan in 2025, 1.30 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.41 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.52 yuan [8][10] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 12.6, 11.7, and 10.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10] Operational Insights - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 8,268 stores, with a net decrease of 57 stores since the beginning of the year. Despite this, terminal retail maintained steady growth, indicating effective channel optimization strategies [6] - The inventory structure has improved, with a significant increase in the proportion of new products within one year of inventory age [7]