CHOW TAI SENG Jewellery Company Limited(SZ:002867) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-02 00:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][13] Core Views - The company's operating performance is under pressure due to rising gold prices, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. Revenue for 2024 was 13.89 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, and net profit was 1.01 billion yuan, down 23.2% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.67 billion yuan, down 47.3%, and net profit was 252 million yuan, down 26.1% [4][5] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.4, 10.5, and 9.0 for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its brand matrix and channel structure to enhance growth potential, despite current challenges [4][6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 138.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.10 billion yuan, down 23.2% [4][7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 26.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.3%, and a net profit of 2.52 billion yuan, down 26.1% [4][5] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 26.2%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin gold products [5][6] Channel and Brand Strategy - The company plans to optimize its channel structure and brand matrix in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its direct sales channels, which have shown resilience. In 2024, the company opened 663 new stores, ending the year with a total of 5008 stores [6][7] - The brand strategy includes the rebranding of multiple brands and strengthening partnerships, such as "Zhou Dasheng X National Treasure" and "Zhou Dasheng Classic" [6][7]