AVIC SAC(600760) 长江证券·2025-05-02 01:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company's revenue and performance have declined due to external factors such as contract signing progress and supply chain issues, but overall profitability remains high. The company's operational quality has significantly improved year-on-year, with sufficient inventory to support short-term production [2][11] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.834 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.55%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 431 million yuan, down 39.87% year-on-year. Overall performance is in line with expectations [6][11] - The company's contract liabilities and advance payments increased compared to the beginning of the period, indicating ongoing capacity expansion to meet the demand for new models [2][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin improved to 12.65%, with a net profit margin of 7.38%. The cash flow from operating activities increased by 77.28 million yuan compared to the same period last year, indicating a significant improvement in overall operational quality [11] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 53% to 5.4 billion yuan, and advance payments rose by 58% to 3.275 billion yuan, reflecting clearer downstream demand and ongoing capacity expansion [11] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.956 billion yuan, 4.732 billion yuan, and 5.577 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 20%, and 18%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 30, 25, and 21 times [11]