RSPC(SZ:002493) Orient Securities·2025-05-02 02:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.64 CNY, based on historical valuation methods and adjusted earnings forecasts [2][5]. Core Insights - The industry is at a bottom and is expected to recover, with the company showing resilience despite a challenging environment [1][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 0.31 CNY, down from a previous estimate of 1.02 CNY, with projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 0.39 CNY and 0.49 CNY respectively [2]. - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating oil prices and the company's strategic projects aimed at enhancing profitability and market position [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 326,475 million CNY in 2024, with a slight growth of 0.4% year-on-year, and is expected to reach 355,946 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 9.0% increase [4]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 724 million CNY in 2024, a decrease of 37.4%, but is expected to rebound significantly to 3,131 million CNY in 2025, marking a growth of 332.1% [4]. - Profit Margins: The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2024 to 14.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. - Return on Equity (ROE): The ROE is projected to increase from 1.6% in 2024 to 8.9% by 2027, reflecting improved efficiency and profitability [4]. Industry Outlook - The refining industry is anticipated to see a recovery due to regulatory changes and improved operational efficiencies, particularly in the domestic market [10]. - The company is actively pursuing strategic projects in new materials and refining, which are expected to drive future growth and enhance its competitive edge [10].