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中国船舶:2024年报&2025年一季报点评:业绩近预告中值符合市场预期,盈利已迎向上拐点-20250502

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a full order book and optimized structure. In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 78.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.6 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year. The shipbuilding and offshore engineering segments generated revenue of 75.4 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year, and a 17% increase after excluding the impact of the recovery of four offshore platforms from a subsidiary [2] - The gross margin has reached an upward turning point, with stable cost control capabilities. The company's gross margin for its main business in 2024 was 9.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for shipbuilding and offshore engineering was 9.6%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the sales gross margin was 12.8%, a year-on-year increase of 6.2 percentage points, benefiting from the rising shipbuilding industry and improved order structure [3] - The shipbuilding manufacturing upcycle is expected to continue, with the company's overall strength continuously enhancing. The U.S. Trade Representative's office released the results of the 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, which are expected to improve market sentiment and order conditions. The mid-term outlook indicates that while the peak of the shipbuilding cycle has passed, it is far from over, with supply rigidly supporting ship prices and demand recovering [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 78.6 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.01%, and a net profit of 3.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.21%. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.81 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36.23 [1][10] - The company expects to receive new orders for 12.72 million DWT worth 103.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of approximately 38% and 43% respectively, with an optimized order structure supporting future performance growth [2] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 181.98 billion yuan in 2024, with total liabilities of 126.71 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.80% [8][10]