hbky(SH:600985) Guohai Securities·2025-05-02 06:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has excellent cost control and that ongoing construction projects are expected to enhance performance [3][4] - The coal business experienced a decline in both volume and price, but the company is expected to stabilize due to long-term contract pricing [9][10] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.692 billion yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year [8] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [8] Coal Business Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company produced 4.31 million tons of commercial coal, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, and sold 2.97 million tons, down 26% year-on-year [9] - The unit price of commercial coal was 938 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 520 yuan, down 12% year-on-year [9] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 418 yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year [9] Construction Projects - The company is progressing with the construction of its first large-scale coal mine in Inner Mongolia, with an annual capacity of 8 million tons, expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [9] - The Xinhai coal mine has entered a new phase of systematic recovery [9] Chemical Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company saw a decline in both coke and methanol sales, with coke production at 740,000 tons (down 15% year-on-year) and sales at 700,000 tons (down 19% year-on-year) [9] - The unit price of coke was 1,499 yuan per ton, down 35% year-on-year, leading to a sales revenue of 1.051 billion yuan, a decrease of 47% [9] - Methanol production was 120,000 tons (up 31% year-on-year), but sales were only 40,000 tons (down 47% year-on-year) [9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 63.4 billion yuan, 67.9 billion yuan, and 70.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4%, +7%, and +4% [9] - Net profits attributable to shareholders are forecasted to be 3.2 billion yuan, 3.9 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -34%, +23%, and +10% [9] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.19 yuan, 1.47 yuan, and 1.62 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [9]