pingmei coal(SH:601666) Guohai Securities·2025-05-02 08:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that both volume and cost have room for improvement, with a long-term resource advantage through strategic acquisitions [3][8]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 5.4 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, and net profit at 150 million yuan, down 80% year-on-year [4][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 25.1 billion yuan in 2025, 26.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 27.8 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -17%, +5%, and +5% respectively [8][12]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a coal production of 7.5 million tons, up 13% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 6.32 million tons, down 9% year-on-year [8]. - The average selling price of commercial coal in Q1 2025 was 763 yuan per ton, down 34% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 616 yuan, down 26% year-on-year [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a strategy to acquire quality coal resources, including a 60% stake in Xinjiang Wusu Sike Tree Coal Co. for 660 million yuan and the successful acquisition of exploration rights for a coal mine with a resource reserve of 1.668 billion tons for 1.748 billion yuan [8]. Financial Projections - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 660 million yuan, 1.33 billion yuan, and 1.96 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.79 yuan [8][12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 31, 15, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][12].