GUJING(SZ:000596) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-02 12:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for Gujing Gongjiu is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year. The Q1 of 2025 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year. The company maintains strong market control, and current environmental and inventory conditions only affect short-term growth without impacting brand strength and sustainable development [6][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the revenue from different product lines was as follows: Yearly original liquor generated 18.086 billion yuan (up 17.31%), Gujing Gongjiu 2.241 billion yuan (up 11.17%), and Huanghelou and others 2.538 billion yuan (up 15.08%). The company expects double-digit growth for the Happiness Edition and Gu 5, with Gu 20 also showing double-digit growth, while Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 are expected to exceed the average growth rate of yearly original liquor [7]. - The contract liabilities at the end of Q4 2024 were 3.515 billion yuan, reflecting a historical high level of channel loyalty and confidence. However, sales cash receipts in Q1 2025 decreased slightly by 1.6% year-on-year to 8.23 billion yuan due to a high base from the previous year's Spring Festival sales [8]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9% in 2024, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios to 26.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 23.4%. In Q1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios further decreased, and the net profit margin rose to 25.5% [9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Gujing Gongjiu for 2025-2027 is as follows: net profits are expected to be 5.886 billion yuan in 2025 (up 6.7%), 6.603 billion yuan in 2026 (up 12.2%), and 7.382 billion yuan in 2027 (up 11.8%). The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 11.14 yuan, 12.49 yuan, and 13.97 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 15.4, 13.7, and 12.3, respectively [6][11].