WLY(SZ:000858) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-02 12:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient operating performance and is actively pursuing channel reforms, which supports the "Buy" rating [5] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 89.175 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, while net profit is expected to reach 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [5][9] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, with a slight decline in net profit margin due to increased promotional expenses [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with net profit of 6.92 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 36.94 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 32.85 billion, 34.90 billion, and 37.32 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 6.2%, and 6.9% [5][9] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 89.175 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 77.1% and a net margin of 37.2% [9][13] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 75.9%, while the net profit margin is expected to be 36.7% for 2025 [9][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 8.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 [9][13] Product Performance - Wuliangye's product revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 67.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven by strategic products [6] - The company has made significant investments in strategic products such as 1618 and low-alcohol beverages, contributing to revenue growth [6] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - Sales cash receipts for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 62.24 billion yuan, aligning with revenue performance [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities decreased by 1.52 billion yuan to 10.17 billion yuan, maintaining a historically high level [7]