ZJJH(600160)2025-05-02 15:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 24.462 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.43% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.96 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 6.556 billion yuan, a 41.21% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 702 million yuan, up 256.83% year-on-year [1][3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a 6.05% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year [1][3]. - The report highlights that refrigerant prices have continued to rise, supporting performance, while high polymer material prices have rebounded after hitting a low [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 24.462 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.4%. The net profit is expected to be 1.96 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 107.7% [3][8]. - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of 30.593 billion yuan in 2025 and 34.408 billion yuan in 2026, with respective growth rates of 25.1% and 12.5% [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.967 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 102.5%, and for 2026, it is expected to be 4.853 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.3% [3][8]. Market Position and Pricing Dynamics - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigerant market, particularly in the third-generation refrigerants, which are expected to continue to see price increases due to industry dynamics and pricing power shifting towards the refrigerant segment [1][7]. - The report indicates that the average price of various refrigerants has increased significantly, with the average price of R32 reaching 4.4 million yuan per ton in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 98.7% [1][7]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company's stock is set at 36.75 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential [3][7].