LAO BAI GAN JIU(SH:600559) Orient Securities·2025-05-03 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.67 CNY, based on a calculated equity value of 180 billion CNY [3][11][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its base market, with significant cost control measures yielding results in 2024. The operating profit growth target for 2025 is set at 12% [2][10]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 5.36 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 790 million CNY, up 18.2% year-on-year [10][4]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 5.47 billion CNY in 2025, with a corresponding year-on-year growth target of 2.1% [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 5.26 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 5.36 billion CNY in 2024 and further to 5.61 billion CNY in 2025, indicating a growth trajectory [4][14]. - The net profit for 2023 was 666 million CNY, expected to rise to 787 million CNY in 2024 and 890 million CNY in 2025, showcasing a consistent growth pattern [4][14]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be 65.9% in 2024, with a slight increase to 66.6% in 2025 [4][14]. Regional Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 31.2 million CNY in Hebei, 2.1 million CNY in Shandong, 5.5 million CNY in Anhui, and 11.0 million CNY in Hunan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 31.4%, 0.5%, and 12.3% [2][10]. - For Q1 2025, revenues in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, and other provinces were 7.2 million CNY, 0.4 million CNY, 1.3 million CNY, 2.1 million CNY, and 0.6 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.0%, 7.9%, 2.5%, 9.7%, and -36.6% respectively [2][10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 14.7%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points from the previous year [2][4]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.06 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.8% [4][14].