科兴制药：2025Q1海外收入持续增长，创新平台进入收获期-20250503

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6][17] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 1.407 billion yuan, an increase of 11.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 31.48 million yuan, up 116.54% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 354 million yuan, down 1.97% year-on-year, but overseas sales grew by 84.33% [1][5] - The innovative platform is entering a harvest phase with significant potential for overseas expansion, particularly with the GDF-15 target candidate drug GB18, which has shown promising results in preclinical studies for treating cancer cachexia [2][3] - The company has established overseas sales channels in over 70 countries and regions, with a 2024 overseas revenue of 224 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 61.96%. The target for 2025 is projected to be between 415 million and 692 million yuan [4] Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of 1.812 billion, 2.192 billion, and 2.718 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Net profits are projected to be 143.32 million, 227.17 million, and 310.19 million yuan for the same years [5][10] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 343.12 million yuan, with a projected EBITDA of 266.26 million yuan for 2025 [10][11] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve significantly, with a forecasted net profit margin of 7.91% in 2025 [12]