Xianhe(SH:603733) Xinda Securities·2025-05-04 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.274 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.004 billion yuan, up 51.2% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with production capacity steadily expanding and continuous improvement in its pulp and paper layout [1][2] - The company is benefiting from the gradual implementation of projects in Guangxi and Hubei, as well as active expansion into overseas markets, with a 36% year-on-year increase in exports for the entire year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 236 million yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin in Q1 2025 was 14.6%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.9%, down 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s total revenue is projected to reach 13.504 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.4% [5] Production Capacity and Projects - The Hubei project is expected to produce 93,400 tons of paper and 59,800 tons of pulp in 2024, while the Guangxi project is expected to produce 28,900 tons of paper and 100,100 tons of pulp [3] - By 2025, the company’s production capacity is expected to increase by 30% to 40% due to the completion of the first phase of both projects, which will add over 900,000 tons of paper production capacity and 900,000 tons of pulp production capacity [3] Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was -196 million yuan, an increase of 218 million yuan year-on-year [4] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company’s inventory turnover days were 124.12 days, a decrease of 22.48 days year-on-year, and accounts receivable turnover days were 56.22 days, down 5.25 days year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.351 billion yuan in 2025, 1.717 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.006 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.0X, 8.7X, and 7.4X [4][5]