Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Huaan Securities·2025-05-04 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue met market expectations, with a total revenue of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [7][11] - The company is undergoing a successful offline channel reform, which is expected to lead to double-digit growth in offline sales, while online sales face high base pressure with a projected year-on-year growth rate remaining flat [5][7] - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 0.66 percentage points to 26.74% in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased sales expenses related to channel reform [6][7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.897 billion yuan, 17.762 billion yuan, and 20.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.8%, 27.8%, and 15.8% [7][12] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 475 million yuan, 656 million yuan, and 846 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.4%, 38.1%, and 29.0% [7][12] Financial Metrics - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 23, 16, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][12] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 25.0% by 2027 [12][14] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 14.4% in 2024 to 21.6% in 2027 [12][14]