迎驾贡酒24年报&25Q1点评：系列酒与省外拖累

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue is impacted by series liquor and external provincial drag [7] - Profitability is driven by structural upgrades, enhancing the company's profit margins [8] - The report indicates a decline in revenue and cash collection due to intensified competition in the market [9] - The company is expected to maintain strong momentum in its cave-aged series, contributing to ongoing product structure upgrades despite short-term challenges [12] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 829 million yuan, down 9.54% [11] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, an increase of 8.46%, with a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% [11] - The company's gross margin improved to 76.5% in Q1 2025, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure upgrades [11] - The report projects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 7.405 billion, 7.910 billion, and 8.514 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.634 billion, 2.865 billion, and 3.138 billion yuan [12][14] Product and Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor decreased by 8.6% and 32.1% respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 87.7% of total liquor revenue [11] - The company’s performance in its home province was better than in external markets, with provincial revenue declining by 7.7% compared to a 29.7% drop in external revenue [11] Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin improved to 40.5% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in gross margin [11] - The projected gross margins for 2025-2027 are 74.5%, 75.2%, and 75.8% respectively, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix [14] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 13, 12, and 11 respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [12]