Three Squirrels(SZ:300783) Huaan Securities·2025-05-04 12:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue met market expectations, with a total revenue of 3.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [7][11] - The company is undergoing a successful offline channel reform, which is expected to lead to double-digit growth in offline sales, while online sales face high base pressure with a slight decline in GMV [5][7] - The company's gross profit margin decreased by 0.66 percentage points to 26.74% in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased channel expenses related to the reform [6][7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.897 billion yuan, 17.762 billion yuan, and 20.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.8%, 27.8%, and 15.8% [7][12] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 475 million yuan, 656 million yuan, and 846 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 16.4%, 38.1%, and 29.0% [7][12] Financial Metrics - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 23, 16, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][12] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 25.0% by 2027 [12][14] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 14.4% in 2024 to 21.6% in 2027 [12][14]