天润乳业（600419）：淘汰牛只扰动利润，业绩有望先抑后扬

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a slight decline in revenue, with total revenue at 625 million yuan, down 2.50% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, a significant decrease of 1713.36% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights that the dairy industry is facing oversupply and weak demand, leading to a decrease in milk prices. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company has experienced a slight decline in gross margin, which was 14.63% in Q1, down 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotional activities [4]. - Despite the challenges, the company has managed to increase its dairy product sales volume by 12.37% year-on-year, reaching 74,500 tons [4]. - The report forecasts that the company's earnings are expected to recover after an initial decline, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.24, 0.53, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2023 to 2027, the company is projected to have total revenue growth rates of 12.6%, 3.3%, 4.9%, 8.6%, and 8.9%, respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline significantly in 2024, with a forecast of 44 million yuan, before recovering to 78 million yuan in 2025 and reaching 246 million yuan by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to fluctuate, with estimates of 19.1%, 16.8%, 17.1%, 18.2%, and 19.2% from 2023 to 2027 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.8% in 2024 to 8.2% in 2027 [5].