迎驾贡酒（603198）：24年报&25Q1点评：系列酒与省外拖累

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue is impacted by series liquor and external provincial drag [7] - Profitability is driven by structural upgrades, enhancing profit margins [8] - The quality of financial statements shows a decline in revenue and cash collection due to intensified competition [9] - The company is expected to maintain strong momentum in its cave-aged series, contributing to ongoing product structure upgrades despite short-term challenges [12] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 829 million yuan, down 9.54% [11] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, an increase of 8.46%, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% [11] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 76.5% in Q1 2025, primarily due to product structure upgrades [11] - The forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates revenue growth to 7.405 billion yuan, 7.910 billion yuan, and 8.514 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.634 billion yuan, 2.865 billion yuan, and 3.138 billion yuan [12][14] Product and Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor decreased by 8.6% and 32.1% respectively, while the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor in total revenue increased by 3.6 percentage points to 87.7% [11] - The company’s performance in its home province was better than in external markets, with provincial revenue declining by 7.7% compared to a 29.7% drop in external revenue [11] Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 40.5% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in gross margin [11] - The forecasted gross margins for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 74.5%, 75.2%, and 75.8% respectively, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix [14]