Semir(SZ:002563) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-04 13:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The implementation of a parenting subsidy system is expected to benefit the children's clothing business, as 23 provinces in China are exploring various forms of birth subsidies [2]. - The company aims to enhance its retail transformation and supply chain capabilities, focusing on consumer insights, efficient product operations, and precise product development [3]. - The financial forecast has been adjusted, with expected revenues for 2025-2027 projected at 153 billion, 160 billion, and 170 billion respectively, and net profits at 11 billion, 12 billion, and 13 billion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 2 billion, down 38% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remained stable at 47%, while the net profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 7% [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 4 percentage points to 29%, and the management expense ratio rose by 1 percentage point to 5% [1]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue growth rates for 2023 to 2027 are 2.47%, 7.06%, 4.30%, 5.10%, and 6.00% respectively [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.41, 0.45, and 0.49 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14x, 13x, and 11x [4][5]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 15.14 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 12.37 billion yuan [6].