JGJC(SZ:000799) Orient Securities·2025-05-04 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.89 CNY, based on a valuation of 149 billion CNY using the FCFF method [2][4][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing weak sales performance, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, attributed to a challenging consumption environment. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in 2025, contingent on macroeconomic factors [9][10]. - The company aims to optimize its product structure and deepen market operations, focusing on core markets and reducing inefficient SKUs by 50% [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company’s revenue is projected to decline from 14.23 billion CNY in 2024 to 12.48 billion CNY in 2025, with a subsequent increase to 13.18 billion CNY in 2026 and 15.72 billion CNY in 2027 [3][9]. - Net Profit: The net profit is expected to recover from 0.12 billion CNY in 2024 to 0.17 billion CNY in 2025, reaching 0.20 billion CNY in 2026 and 0.31 billion CNY in 2027 [3][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is forecasted to be 0.04 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.53 CNY in 2025, 0.62 CNY in 2026, and 0.96 CNY in 2027 [3][10]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin is expected to decline to 71.4% in 2024, with a slight recovery to 68.7% in 2025 and stabilizing around 71.4% by 2027 [3][9]. - Net Margin: The net margin is projected to be 0.9% in 2024, improving to 13.7% in 2025 and reaching 19.8% by 2027 [3][9]. Market Performance Summary - The company’s stock has shown a negative absolute performance over various time frames, including a -3.42% decline over the past week and a -10.72% decline over the past month [5].