JUNEYAOAIR(SH:603885) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-04 15:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 18% year-on-year, with a revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [1] - The company plans to introduce 17 new aircraft from 2025 to 2027, indicating confidence in future growth [2] - The company has announced a cash dividend of 0.19 yuan per share, representing a 45% cash dividend payout ratio, and plans to cancel 15 million repurchased shares [5] - The long-term outlook for the industry suggests a persistent supply constraint with steady demand growth, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and high profit elasticity [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 910 million yuan, marking an 18% increase year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.7 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, down 8% year-on-year [1] Operational Metrics - The aircraft utilization rate improved to 11.5 hours per day in 2024, an increase of approximately 1.2 hours year-on-year [2] - The passenger load factor reached 84.6% in 2024, up 1.8 percentage points from 2023 [2] - The company plans to increase its fleet size to 127 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a net addition of 10 aircraft [2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The unit revenue per available seat kilometer (ASK) decreased by 6% year-on-year to 0.394 yuan in 2024, primarily due to falling ticket prices [3] - The unit cost per ASK also decreased by 6% year-on-year to 0.339 yuan, driven by lower fuel prices [3] Expense Management - The company reduced its unit sales and management expenses by 5% and 16% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 [4] - Financial expenses decreased to 1.46 billion yuan in 2024, down 0.4 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to lower leasing interest expenses [4] Future Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.32 billion yuan, 1.76 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]