GUJING(SZ:000596) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 01:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% year-on-year. The Q1 of 2025 showed better-than-expected performance with a revenue of 9.146 billion yuan, a 10.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.33 billion yuan, up 12.78% year-on-year. The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 5.889 billion, 6.603 billion, and 7.382 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 12.2%, and 11.8% [6][11][13] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company maintained a gross margin of 79.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The selling and administrative expense ratios decreased by 0.6 percentage points each to 26.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The net profit margin for 2024 was 23.4%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the selling and administrative expense ratios were 26.6% and 4.4%, respectively, with a net profit margin of 25.5%, reflecting continuous improvement in profitability [9][11][13] Revenue Structure - The revenue from different product lines in 2024 was as follows: Year Original Pulp at 18.086 billion yuan (up 17.31%), Gujing Gongjiu at 2.241 billion yuan (up 11.17%), and Huanghelou and others at 2.538 billion yuan (up 15.08%). The report anticipates double-digit growth for the Happiness Edition and Gu 5, with Gu 20 also expected to see double-digit growth, while Gu 7, Gu 8, and Gu 16 are projected to exceed the average growth rate of Year Original Pulp [7] Contract Liabilities and Sales - As of the end of Q4 2024, contract liabilities stood at 3.515 billion yuan, an increase of 1.579 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter. By the end of Q1 2025, contract liabilities rose to 3.674 billion yuan, reflecting strong brand loyalty and confidence from the distribution channels. Sales cash receipts for 2024 totaled 23.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, while Q1 2025 sales cash receipts were 8.23 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year's Spring Festival sales [8]