PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 01:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing gradual release of performance pressure, with advantages in financing and sales [6] - Despite a decline in revenue and profit, the company maintains its leading sales ranking and continues to optimize its land reserve structure [6][8] - The company has a significant cost advantage in financing, with a reduction in debt costs and an increase in direct financing [9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 311.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% [7] - The gross margin and net margin were 13.9% and 3.1%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [7] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of 1.95 billion yuan, down 12.3% [7] Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a signed sales amount of 323.03 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 23.5%, while maintaining the top sales ranking [8] - The total land acquisition amount was 68.3 billion yuan, down 58% year-on-year, with 74% of the acquisitions in first-tier cities [8] Debt and Financing - The company added 166.4 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt in 2024, with a comprehensive cost of debt decreasing by 22 basis points to 2.92% [9] - The asset-liability ratio decreased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 74.3%, marking four consecutive years of decline [9] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 5.68 billion, 6.56 billion, and 7.51 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be 0.47, 0.55, and 0.63 yuan [6]