YILING PHARMACEUTICAL(SZ:002603) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-05 04:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yiling Pharmaceutical [2][8] Core Views - A turning point has been observed, with innovation leading the next journey for the company [2] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -720 million yuan, down 153.6% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, but a net profit of 330 million yuan, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year [2][4] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2024: 6.51 billion yuan - 2025: 9.03 billion yuan (38.7% growth) - 2026: 10.05 billion yuan (11.3% growth) - 2027: 11.14 billion yuan (10.8% growth) [4] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2024: -720 million yuan - 2025: 1.24 billion yuan (270.9% growth) - 2026: 1.44 billion yuan (16.4% growth) - 2027: 1.64 billion yuan (14.0% growth) [4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024: -0.43 yuan - 2025: 0.74 yuan - 2026: 0.86 yuan - 2027: 0.98 yuan [4] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 18 times, with a target price of 18.5 yuan based on a P/E of 25 times [4][8] Market Performance and Trends - The company is expected to stabilize and recover in its core categories, with innovative traditional Chinese medicine driving long-term growth [2][8] - The report highlights a significant improvement in operational quality, with a net cash flow of 610 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 293% [2][8] - The report anticipates a recovery in the respiratory category, projecting revenue to return to a reasonable level in 2025 [2][8]