太阳纸业（002078）：业绩符合预期，Q2有望继续上行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 9.898 billion, 0.886 billion, and 0.883 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3%, 7%, and 7% [2][7]. - The improvement in profitability per ton of cultural paper due to price increases since November 2024 contributed to a sequential performance increase of over 200 million yuan compared to Q4 2024, although the average market price for cultural paper in Q1 2025 was 300-400 yuan lower than in Q1 2024, leading to a slight year-on-year decline in profitability and overall performance [2][8][14]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The sales volume of non-coated cultural paper and coated paper is estimated to have slightly increased both year-on-year and sequentially, while profitability per ton improved significantly due to price increases [8]. - The sales volume of boxboard paper remained stable, with the Shandong base performing best, and slight improvements noted in the Guangxi and Laos bases [8]. - The sales volume of dissolving pulp is estimated to have decreased year-on-year due to production line relocation, while the market price remained stable [8]. - The sales volume of household paper is estimated to have increased due to the release of new capacity, with profitability remaining relatively stable [8]. Future Outlook - The cultural paper market is expected to remain stable due to demand from tender orders, and the commencement of operations at the Beihai dissolving pulp plant is anticipated to further boost Q2 performance [9]. - The company expects an increase in sales and profits from the Beihai dissolving pulp plant and a shift in boxboard paper sales to optimize profitability structure [9]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.66 billion, 4.06 billion, and 4.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [15].