BUCID(SH:600266) Minsheng Securities·2025-05-05 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has significantly improved its revenue and profitability, achieving an operating income of 6.614 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 435.90%, and a net profit of 43.175 million yuan, reversing from a loss of 330 million yuan in 2023 [1]. - The sales area decreased by 19.53% year-on-year to 61,800 square meters, but the sales amount was 5.382 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.54%. The average sales price increased by 22.33% to 87,100 yuan per square meter, attributed to a higher proportion of new projects in first-tier cities [2]. - The company has a strong resource reserve and is deeply engaged in the Beijing market, acquiring multiple redevelopment projects and achieving record sales in high-end residential segments [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, the company reported an operating cash flow of 3.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.09% due to a significant rise in cash received from operating activities [1]. - The company has made provisions for asset impairment and credit impairment totaling 596 million yuan and 2.746 billion yuan for 2023-2024, which laid the foundation for the turnaround in net profit in Q1 2025 [3]. Revenue Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 26.295 billion yuan, 28.079 billion yuan, and 30.745 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 6.8%, and 9.5% respectively [3][4]. - The corresponding PE ratios for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 10X, 7X, and 4X [3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 941 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 2.383 billion yuan by 2027 [4][5]. - The report indicates a projected net profit margin of 7.75% by 2027, reflecting improved profitability [4].