SMIC(SH:688981) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-05 05:43Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [8] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor sector outperformed major indices in Q1 2025, with a net profit growth of 15.1% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in equipment and packaging sectors [4][16] - The focus for Q2 2025 is on three main lines: the utilization rate of foundry capacity may drive price increases, the design sector is expected to show performance elasticity, and leading equipment manufacturers continue to demonstrate high growth [5][6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Q1 Market Review - The semiconductor sector outperformed major indices in Q1 2025, with the semiconductor index down 0.26%, while the ChiNext index and Shanghai Composite index fell 4.65% and 2.10%, respectively [16] - The electronic sector maintained the highest allocation in the market at 18.7%, with semiconductor holdings accounting for 11.01% of total market value, an increase of 1.67 percentage points [16][20] 2. Semiconductor Q1 Performance Summary - The semiconductor sector reported revenues of 128.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit of 7.9 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [4] - The equipment sector led growth with a revenue increase of 33.4%, while the packaging sector grew by 24% [4] - The design sector showed performance divergence, with companies like Rockchip and Hengxuan Technology benefiting from AI deployment, while analog chips and storage modules faced price competition [4] 3. Q2 Outlook - Foundry capacity utilization rates are expected to drive price increases, with companies like Huahong and SMIC nearing full capacity [5] - The design sector, particularly SoC/ASIC/storage, is anticipated to show performance elasticity in Q2 [5] - Leading equipment manufacturers are expected to maintain high growth, supported by mergers and acquisitions that enhance global competitiveness [6] 4. Delivery Time Expectations - In Q1 2025, global chip delivery times remained stable, with normal market supply; however, delivery times for most categories are expected to rise in Q2 2025 [3][26] - Specific categories like automotive MCUs saw price declines, while some mid-to-high-end MLCCs experienced increases in delivery times and prices [3][26] 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading foundries, design companies, and semiconductor materials and equipment manufacturers, reflecting a diversified investment approach within the semiconductor sector [7]