WLY(SZ:000858) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-05 06:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.940 billion yuan, growing by 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, an increase of 5.80% year-on-year. The performance in 2024 met expectations, while Q1 2025 slightly exceeded expectations [10] - The company is focusing on three key reform initiatives: controlling volume and maintaining prices, establishing sales companies, and building platform companies. This strategy aims to streamline the relationship between volume and price, maintain distributor profits, reduce inventory, and enhance the C-end network system focused on direct sales and group purchases [10] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 5.13%, 5.43%, and 5.21% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.54%, 5.39%, and 5.43% respectively. The estimated EPS for these years are 8.58, 9.04, and 9.53 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.00X, 14.24X, and 13.50X, indicating a favorable valuation [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue from other liquor products was 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 60.81% [2] - The company reported a gross margin of 77.05% in 2024, slightly up by 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 37.22%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 77.74%, down 0.68 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 41.60%, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [5] Sales and Distribution - In 2024, the company’s distribution revenue was 48.738 billion yuan, a 5.99% increase year-on-year, while direct sales revenue was 34.389 billion yuan, up 12.89% year-on-year, with direct sales accounting for 41.37% of total revenue [3] - The company increased its number of distributors by 82 and added 124 exclusive stores in 2024, with a total of over 1,700 exclusive stores currently [3] Market Performance - Revenue from the eastern, southern, and northern regions in 2024 was 31.29 billion yuan, 39.336 billion yuan, and 12.501 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.75%, 12.65%, and a decline of 3.98% respectively [4] - The company has expanded into 20 new overseas markets in 2024 [4] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.940 billion yuan, down 18.69% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a significant increase to 15.849 billion yuan, up 2970.31% year-on-year [5] - Contract liabilities increased by 4.826 billion yuan to 11.690 billion yuan in 2024, and by 5.119 billion yuan to 10.166 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [6] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio increased from 60% in 2023 to 70% in 2024 [6]