SHUANGHUI(SZ:000895) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 06:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed slight pressure with a revenue of 14.3 billion yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.137 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is maintained at 5.24 billion, 5.51 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.51, 1.59, and 1.68 yuan, indicating a stable investment opportunity [1][4] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the meat product segment generated revenue of 5.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year, with sales volume and price at approximately 310,000 tons and 17.9 yuan/kg, down 17.4% and 0.5% respectively. This decline is attributed to insufficient consumer demand and inventory reduction in the market [2] - The profit per ton for meat products was approximately 4,729 yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but still at a high level, with operating profit of 1.48 billion yuan, down 21.7%, and an operating profit margin of 26.5% [2] Slaughtering and Breeding Business - The slaughtering business achieved revenue of 7.0 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, with operating profit of 120 million yuan, up 24.7%, and an operating profit margin of 1.7%. Fresh product sales volume was about 450,000 tons, up 12.6% year-on-year [3] - The breeding business saw a revenue increase of 30.7% year-on-year, with a reduction in losses to 140 million yuan. The company plans to enhance management and cost control, expecting further improvement in operational performance throughout the year [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 61.04 billion, 63.55 billion, and 65.83 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, 4.1%, and 3.6% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.24 billion, 5.51 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 5.0%, 5.1%, and 5.6% [4] - The company maintains a stable gross margin around 17.7% to 17.9% and a net margin of approximately 8.6% to 8.8% over the forecast period [9]