Semir(SZ:002563) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-05 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The implementation of the parenting subsidy policy is expected to benefit the children's clothing business, as 23 provinces in China have begun exploring various forms of birth subsidies [2]. - The company aims to enhance its retail transformation and supply chain capabilities by focusing on consumer insights, efficient product operations, and precise product development [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 15.3 billion, 16 billion, and 17 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.3 billion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 200 million, down 38% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remained stable at 47%, while the net profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 7% [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 4 percentage points to 29%, and the management expense ratio rose by 1 percentage point to 5% [1]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company expects revenues for 2025 to be 15.25 billion, with a growth rate of 4.3% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.41, 0.45, and 0.49 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 14x, 13x, and 11x for the next three years [4].