永新光学（603297）：业绩符合预期，紧握高端光学机遇

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 892 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 209 million yuan, a decrease of 11.4%. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [4][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 892 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%. For Q1 2025, revenue is 220 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1.8%. The estimated revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1,165 million yuan, 1,411 million yuan, and 1,673 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 30.7%, 21.1%, and 18.5% [5][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 302 million yuan, with a growth rate of 45.0%. The projected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 349 million yuan and 400 million yuan, with growth rates of 15.5% and 14.5% respectively [5][8] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.72 yuan, with a projected PE ratio of 32 [5][8] Business Performance Insights - The optical microscope business generated sales of 356 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 13.92%, while the optical components business achieved sales of 513 million yuan, an increase of 22.56%. The high-end microscope segment has seen significant growth, with over 5% domestic substitution achieved [6] - The company continues to invest in R&D, with expenditures reaching 98.5 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 11.33% of main business revenue. New microscope products priced between 200,000 and 3 million yuan have been launched, and the company has established long-term partnerships in the semiconductor sector [6] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, with new estimates for 2025 and 2026 net profits set at 302 million yuan and 349 million yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 32, 28, and 24 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating over 20% upside potential based on a target PE of 42 for 2025 [6]