GREAT RIVER SMARTER(SZ:002930) Huachuang Securities·2025-05-05 07:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected at 160 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47%, while the first quarter of 2025 shows a net profit of 21 million yuan, down 65% year-on-year [1][6]. - Total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.45 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.3% compared to the previous year, with a recovery anticipated in subsequent years [2][6]. - The company is expanding its chemical logistics footprint through self-construction, acquisitions, and management output, with a new joint venture announced in March 2025 [6][12]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024 Financial Projections: - Total Revenue: 1,450 million yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year - Net Profit: 158 million yuan, down 46.6% year-on-year - Earnings Per Share (EPS): 0.35 yuan [2][6]. - 2025 Financial Projections: - Total Revenue: 1,709 million yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year - Net Profit: 179 million yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year - EPS: 0.39 yuan [2][6]. - 2026 Financial Projections: - Total Revenue: 1,864 million yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year - Net Profit: 249 million yuan, up 38.6% year-on-year - EPS: 0.54 yuan [2][6]. - 2027 Financial Projections: - Total Revenue: 2,005 million yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year - Net Profit: 297 million yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year - EPS: 0.65 yuan [2][6]. Business Segment Analysis - In 2024, the revenue breakdown by service includes: - Terminal tank comprehensive services: 1.27 billion yuan (87% of total revenue) - Chemical warehouse comprehensive services: 80 million yuan (5.7%) - Transshipment and other services: 60 million yuan (4%) [6][12]. - The company’s total tank capacity reached 5.19 million cubic meters, a 4% increase year-on-year, while warehouse capacity increased by 78% to 115,000 square meters [6][12]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the chemical storage industry, with high barriers to entry and potential for market share growth as industry demand recovers [6][12]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in the industry, with expected net profits of 180 million yuan in 2025, 250 million yuan in 2026, and 300 million yuan in 2027 [6][12].