SHUANGHUI(SZ:000895) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed slight pressure with a revenue of 14.3 billion yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.137 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is maintained at 5.24 billion, 5.51 billion, and 5.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.51, 1.59, and 1.68 yuan, indicating a stable investment opportunity due to its solid industry position and complete supply chain [1][4] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the meat product segment generated revenue of 5.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year, with sales volume and price at approximately 310,000 tons and 17.9 yuan/kg, down 17.4% and 0.5% respectively. This decline is attributed to insufficient consumer demand and inventory reduction in the market [2] - The profit per ton for meat products was approximately 4,729 yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year but still at a high level, with operating profit of 1.48 billion yuan, down 21.7%, and an operating profit margin of 26.5% [2] Slaughtering and Breeding Business - The slaughtering business achieved revenue of 7.0 billion yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year, with operating profit of 120 million yuan, up 24.7%, and an operating profit margin of 1.7% [3] - Fresh product sales reached approximately 450,000 tons, up 12.6% year-on-year, with a price of 15.4 yuan/kg, down 5.8% year-on-year, driven by an increase in customer numbers and successful network expansion [3] - The breeding business saw a revenue increase of 30.7% year-on-year, with a reduction in losses to 140 million yuan, indicating improvements in both pig and poultry production [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 are estimated at 61.039 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2%. The net profit is expected to be 5.24 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.0% increase year-on-year [4][9] - Key financial ratios include a gross margin of 17.7% and a net margin of 8.6% for 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 16.5 for 2025 [4][9]