YILI(SH:600887) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in profitability, supported by a diversified product portfolio and optimized channel matrix [4][7] - The company aims for revenue and profit targets of 1190 billion and 126 billion respectively for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1157.8 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84.53 billion, down 18.9% year-on-year [4] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 330.2 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year, while net profit was 48.74 billion, down 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The company plans a dividend of 1.22 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 92%, alongside a share buyback that accounts for 100.4% of net profit [4] Business Segment Performance - In Q4 2024, the liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 13.1%, while milk powder and cold drinks grew by 8.7% and 23.7% respectively [5] - For Q1 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 3.1%, milk powder increased by 18.6%, and cold drinks fell by 5.3% [5] - The company maintained its leading market share in liquid milk and saw growth in low-temperature milk [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 30.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -9.1% due to significant asset impairment losses [6] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 37.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by business structure optimization [6] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for steady growth in 2025, with expectations of improved supply and demand dynamics due to consumption promotion policies [7] - The reduction of impairment losses related to the acquisition of Aoyou is expected to enhance profitability significantly [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.5, 16.3, and 15.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]