Bailong Chuangyuan(SH:605016) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-05 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the sugar substitute market, with significant improvements in profitability. Revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 are projected to be CNY 1.152 billion, CNY 246 million, and CNY 231 million, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 32.64%, 27.26%, and 31.72% [1][4]. - The company is benefiting from capacity expansion and increased demand for healthy sweeteners, with Q1 revenue for healthy sweeteners doubling compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The overseas market is showing strong demand, with foreign revenue accounting for nearly 70% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11% [2]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 33.65% and 21.33%, respectively, with improvements attributed to cost reductions and increased production efficiency [3][4]. - The financial forecast indicates that revenue is expected to grow by 33%, 23%, and 20% from 2025 to 2027, reaching CNY 1.53 billion, CNY 1.88 billion, and CNY 2.26 billion, respectively [4][5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is CNY 335 million, with a year-on-year growth of 36.55% [5][4]. Market Dynamics - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with foreign revenue projected to reach CNY 698 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 58.42% [2]. - The demand for products like allulose sugar is increasing globally, aligning with health trends in various countries [2][4].