迈瑞医疗:政策扰动下25Q1短期承压,招标恢复趋势下看好业绩逐季改善-20250505

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance due to a recovery in bidding trends, despite short-term pressure in Q1 2025 caused by domestic policy disruptions and high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - The in-vitro diagnostics business is showing steady growth, while the high-end ultrasound A20 is driving growth in the medical imaging segment [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 400.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 367.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.14%, and a net profit of 116.68 billion yuan, up 0.74% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 82.37 billion yuan, a decline of 12.12% year-on-year, and a net profit of 26.29 billion yuan, down 16.81% [1] Business Segments - The life information and support business generated revenue of 135.57 billion yuan, down 11.11% year-on-year, primarily due to domestic industry regulations and delays in procurement [2] - The in-vitro diagnostics segment saw revenue of 137.65 billion yuan, an increase of 10.82%, with overseas growth exceeding 30% [2] - The medical imaging segment achieved revenue of 74.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.60%, with overseas revenue growing over 15% [2] Market Trends - The company is experiencing a recovery in domestic bidding data, with expectations of a significant turning point in Q3 2025 [3] - The overseas revenue for 2024 reached 164.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.28%, with the overseas revenue proportion rising to approximately 45% [4] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to see net profits of 128.07 billion yuan, 150.90 billion yuan, and 176.39 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.8%, 17.8%, and 16.9% [5]