贵州茅台：公司信息更新报告：收入业绩略超预期，彰显龙头韧性-20250505

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is maintained as "Buy" [1][5][16] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with total revenue reaching 51.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 95.6 billion, 105.9 billion, and 114.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 8.1% respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 20.3, 18.3, and 17.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue from Moutai liquor was 43.56 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, driven by faster shipment pace and significant contributions from kilogram packaging [6] - Series liquor revenue reached 7.02 billion yuan, up 18.3% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth from the 1935 brand [6] - Direct sales channel revenue grew by 20.2% year-on-year to 23.22 billion yuan, attributed to strong growth in corporate group purchases [7] Financial Performance - Cash flow performance was strong, with sales cash receipts of 56.1 billion yuan, a 21.4% increase year-on-year [8] - Gross margin slightly decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 91.97%, while net margin improved by 0.42 percentage points to 52.19% [8] - The company does not face the common industry issue of brand concessions to distribution channels, indicating stable profit margins [8] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the expected operating revenue is 190.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [10] - The expected diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 76.10 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.3 [10][13] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 29.2% in 2025, decreasing to 23.2% by 2027 [10]