KELUN PHARMA(SZ:002422) Soochow Securities·2025-05-05 12:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 4.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.42%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 584 million yuan, down 43.07% [7] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a high base in Q1 2024, the impact of centralized procurement on the infusion business, and fluctuations in the prices of raw materials and intermediates [7] - The company is expected to maintain stable profits in its three main businesses: large-volume infusion, raw materials, and generic drugs, while the innovative drug pipeline is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 25.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.53 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 20.37% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.21 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.37 [1] Business Segments - The large-volume infusion segment is expected to generate 8.91 billion yuan in revenue for the full year 2024, with a decline of 11.9% [7] - The raw materials and intermediates segment is projected to achieve 5.86 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, showing a growth of 21% [7] - The generic drug segment is expected to maintain positive growth, supported by new products entering the market [7] Innovation and Internationalization - The innovative drug pipeline is expected to continue generating significant revenue, with products like TROP2 ADC and others receiving regulatory approval [7] - The company is actively pursuing internationalization, with ongoing clinical trials and potential overseas registrations for its innovative products [7] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 12.38 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [1] - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 15.28% by 2027 [8]