水星家纺（603365）：24年达成股权激励考核目标，25Q1营收平稳增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved its equity incentive assessment targets for 2024, with a stable revenue growth of 1.2% in Q1 2025, despite a challenging retail environment [7][9] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.9 CNY per share for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 233 million CNY, reflecting a payout ratio of 63.6% [7] - The gross margin has shown an upward trend, indicating potential for improved profitability if expense ratios are managed effectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 was 4,193 million CNY, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 367 million CNY, down 3.3% year-on-year [6][7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue reached 926 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million CNY, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year [6][7] - The company forecasts net profits of 396 million CNY for 2025, with expected growth rates of 8.0% in 2025, 8.9% in 2026, and 8.5% in 2027 [6][7] Operational Performance - The company maintains strong operational capabilities, with a net operating cash flow of 520 million CNY in 2024, significantly higher than net profit, indicating robust earnings quality [7] - Inventory turnover days increased slightly to 145 days, but overall inventory levels remain stable [7] Channel Performance - Online sales contributed 55% of total revenue in 2024, with an e-commerce revenue of 2.3 billion CNY, despite a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [7] - The offline franchise revenue was 1.33 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [7] Valuation and Market Outlook - The report suggests an upward adjustment in revenue growth expectations for the e-commerce segment, leading to an increase in profit forecasts for 2025 to 400 million CNY [7] - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 5.4 billion CNY, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the market value as of April 30, 2025 [7]