YILI(SH:600887) Orient Securities·2025-05-05 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 36.33 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 21 times the earnings for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company faced profit pressure in 2024 due to goodwill impairment, with a reported revenue of 115.39 billion CNY, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year. However, the performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 32.94 billion CNY, up 1.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.87 billion CNY, down 17.7% year-on-year, but showing a 31% increase when excluding prior year investment gains [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company is projected to generate revenues of 121.41 billion CNY in 2025, 128.33 billion CNY in 2026, and 137.19 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.9% respectively [3]. - Profitability Metrics: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 11.02 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth of 30.3%, followed by 12.52 billion CNY in 2026 and 13.83 billion CNY in 2027 [3]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is forecasted to be 1.73 CNY in 2025, 1.97 CNY in 2026, and 2.17 CNY in 2027 [2][9]. - Margins: The gross margin is expected to improve to 34.3% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 9.1% [3][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 29.76 CNY, with a 52-week high of 31.96 CNY and a low of 21.13 CNY. The current dividend yield stands at 4.2% based on a proposed cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share [4][8].