LZLJ(SZ:000568) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-05 14:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][16] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.879 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, and a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [5][6][8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 13.94 billion, 14.49 billion, and 15.24 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.4%, 3.9%, and 5.2%. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 9.47, 9.84, and 10.35 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13.1, 12.6, and 12.0 times [5][10][11]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.59 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with sales volume increasing by 14.4% and price per ton decreasing by 10.2%. Other liquor categories generated revenue of 3.47 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year [6][8]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 87.5%, while the net profit margin fell by 0.6 percentage points to 43.2% [8][10]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on stabilizing market order and improving efficiency in expense allocation, implementing a five-step system to ensure a steady repayment rhythm for distributors [7][8].