Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) CMS·2025-05-05 15:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 54.45 billion yuan, an increase of 27.61% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.52% [1][2]. - The significant increase in Q1 2025 net profit to 974 million yuan, a 64.66% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicates a positive trend for the upcoming quarters [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the company's profits will continue to rise in Q2 2025, driven by a decrease in alumina prices [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue is projected to grow from 42.67 billion yuan in 2023 to 56.99 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [2][16]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly to 6.19 billion yuan in 2025E, representing a 40% growth compared to 2024 [2][16]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.14 yuan in 2023 to 1.78 yuan in 2025E [2][16]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.3 in 2023 to 8.5 in 2025E, indicating potential undervaluation [7][16]. Production and Operational Insights - The company plans to produce approximately 301,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2025, with a focus on increasing production capacity [6]. - The report highlights that the company benefits from a high operating rate of 96.1% in the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity, suggesting a robust production environment [6]. Shareholder Returns - The company has improved its financial health, with a significant reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio from 75.44% in 2018 to 23.97% in Q1 2025 [6]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 11.76% in 2021 to 32.23% in 2024, with cash dividends totaling 1.422 billion yuan, a 78.26% increase from 2023 [6].