甘源食品（002991）：经营低点已过，关注新品类、海外进展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company has passed its operational low point, with a focus on new product categories and overseas market expansion. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue and net profit growth of 22.2% and 14.3% respectively. However, in Q1 2025, revenue and net profit declined by 14.0% and 42.2% year-on-year. The company is emphasizing the growth of its bulk sales channel and plans to accelerate the launch of localized overseas products in Q2 2025, which is expected to contribute to revenue improvement in subsequent quarters [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.257 billion yuan and a net profit of 376 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.2% and 14.3% respectively. The Q4 2024 results showed revenue of 650 million yuan and a net profit of 100 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.0% and a decline of 13.9% respectively. For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 500 million yuan and a net profit of 50 million yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 14.0% and 42.2% [5][6] Market Channels - The bulk sales channel has shown significant growth, now accounting for over 20% of total sales. The company is actively negotiating new product collaborations with membership supermarkets. The overseas market, particularly Vietnam, is also a key focus for growth, with plans to expand into Indonesia and Malaysia [1][6] Product Categories - The company is nurturing its flavored nut category as its second-largest product line, while other new products in the potato chip category are still in the early stages of development. The growth in the bulk sales channel is expected to continue to be a major driver for the company [1][6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 4.20 yuan and 4.71 yuan respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2025 [6]