广州发展（600098）：用发展的眼光看“发展”

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, marking it as the first recommendation [11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of viewing the company from a developmental perspective, highlighting the ongoing reforms in the electricity market and the transition towards a comprehensive energy service model, which is beneficial for the company's long-term stability and profitability [9][86]. - The company is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider with a diversified business layout, including traditional coal power, renewable energy, gas, and energy logistics, which supports its profitability [6][21]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company operates a diversified energy business, including traditional coal power, renewable energy, gas, and energy logistics. While energy logistics accounts for over half of the revenue, the core profit contributions come from power generation and gas businesses, with power generation contributing 54% and gas 40% to total profits in 2024 [6][29]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the challenges faced by coal power in Guangdong, particularly the expected decline in annual trading electricity prices, which could impact profitability. However, a decrease in coal prices may provide some relief [7][46]. Business Synergy - The company's coal and gas power operations benefit from synergies that enhance fuel supply and pricing stability. The integration of energy logistics with power generation ensures better resource allocation and cost management [8][77]. Gas Business Expansion - The gas business is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected increase in supply from 55 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 72 billion cubic meters in 2025. This segment is expected to contribute significantly to overall profits, maintaining a stable profit contribution of around 40% [67][69]. Future Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.57, 0.63, and 0.74 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.41, 10.16, and 8.75 based on the stock price as of April 30 [9][87].